The report projects that petrol prices will increase by 3.66% to 5.86%, bringing the pump price to around GHS 14.17 per litre. Diesel could rise between 2.12% and 4.32%, potentially retailing at GHS 14.67 per litre, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) may go up by 2.23% to 4.23%, pushing the price to about GHS 14 per kilogram.

COMAC attributed the anticipated hikes mainly to the recent depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar, which fell from GHS 11.20 to GHS 12.07 during the review period, representing a 7.76% drop. This brings the currency’s year-to-date loss to 14.02%, one of the steepest globally, according to Bloomberg.

“The decline is primarily due to strong demand for the dollar for imports ahead of the festive season,” COMAC explained.

On the international market, prices of finished petroleum products have been falling, with petrol down 2.52%, diesel 4.12%, and LPG 2.69%. However, the cedi’s depreciation has outweighed these declines, making domestic price increases inevitable.

Source: MyJoyOnline

This is based on the outlook report that guides the pricing of the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in the country by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), as seen by JOY BUSINESS.

Projected Prices at Pumps

Based on the report, the price of petrol at the pumps is projected to increase by 3.86 – 5.40% per litre from September 1, 2025. The development could result in a litre of petrol going for GHS 13.67.

LPG will be increased by up to 4.57% per kilogram.

Diesel, on the other hand, could be up by 3.39% per litre, and this may result in a litre going for GHC14.35.

Reasons

According to the COMAC, the hike has been influenced by the cedi experiencing some substantial depreciation against the US dollar over the past month.

According to the chamber, the rate shifted from GHS 10.71 to GHS 11.20, reflecting 3.98 per cent, the “highest since the start of this year”.

The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies, however, in the report revealed that crude oil on the international market has been dropping; the price of petrol was down by 0.45%, diesel by 3.73%, and LPG by 1.73%.

Some of the industry players have argued that the recent 1 cedi levy on some petroleum products may have also contributed to the margin of increase.

Cedi’s Depreciation and Supply Challenges

The Chamber in the report argued that despite the reduction in international petroleum prices, the increment was “due to depreciation of the cedi against the dollar.”

Additionally, the recurring shortfall in supply of finished petroleum products, particularly petrol from earlier this month, also accounted for the increase in prices.

JOY BUSINESS reported last week that the market had been hit with some supply challenges, especially when it comes to petrol.

That actually forced some of the oil marketing companies to increase their prices from the middle of August 2025, when prices should have been kept unchanged.

According to GlobalPetrolPrices.com, which tracks global petroleum prices, Ghana’s average petrol price of $1.4011 per litre in June 2025 ranks 109th worldwide, down from 77th in May 2025 when the price was $1.211 per litre.

This sudden and significant decline in ranking is puzzling, especially considering the Ghana cedi has strengthened by nearly 40% against the US dollar during this period. This has raised questions about possible hidden taxes within the petroleum pricing structure.

Libya remains the country with the lowest fuel price in Africa at just $0.027 per litre, also topping the global ranking.

Angola and Algeria follow, with fuel prices of $0.327 and $0.349 per litre respectively, ranking 4th and 6th worldwide.

Other countries rounding out the top nine lowest fuel prices in Africa include Egypt ($0.382), Nigeria ($0.527), Sudan ($0.700), Tunisia ($0.846), Liberia ($0.871), Ethiopia ($0.8971), and DR Congo ($1.029).

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) across Ghana started reducing petroleum prices at the pumps from June 1, 2025. This price reduction is expected to last for two weeks during June.

Reasons for Adjustments

The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies, in its Price Outlook Report, explained that the price reduction results mainly from the cedi’s appreciation.

The Ghanaian cedi strengthened significantly against the US dollar in late May 2025, moving from GH¢13.99 to GH¢12.15, a gain of about 13.11%.

This gain offset a rise in the global price of finished petroleum products.

The warning is coming after some oil marketing companies started increasing prices at the pumps despite projections that prices would go down from mid-May.

The companies have blamed the decision to increase the prices on the uncertainties in the exchange rate market.

As of Tuesday May 21, 2024, one dollar was selling for GH¢15.20 at Forex Bureaus.

The Executive Secretary of the Chamber, Duncan Amoah said Oil Marketing Companies are struggling due to the exchange rate volatilities.

Mr. Amoah disclosed that even though some of the Oil Marketing Companies are exploring other innovative ways to minimize the impact of the cedi’s depreciation on their operations, the instability is making it difficult to plan.

“Once you have a currency that you can’t predict its performance in the next two to three months, then you are forcing the importers to determine what values to set their pricing”, he said.

He argued that business owners will always react to market expectations and make their forecasts based on the performance of the currency.

“If the importer is done selling his fuel, he has to pay the suppliers. He needs more cedi than he did when he was setting the price. A certain overrun may have occurred”, he said.

Mr. Amoah said importers are saddled with costs because they need more cedis to buy the same amount of dollars that was initially used to import the product.

“So clearly, something must be done and the government has a duty to ensure stability of the cedi”, he said.

He further indicated that the performance of the cedi and how the various finished petroleum products are selling on the international market have been a major factor in determining fuel prices at the pumps.

However, most of the oil marketing companies decided to leave the prices unchanged since last Thursday because of the cedi’s depreciation.

Another major player in the industry, Allied Oil told Joy Business that the company will also review its prices upwards, but will still be below the 14 cedi mark.

READ ALSO:

• Government defends proposed tax on big tech revenues
• IEA outlines measures to stabilise Ghana’s “bleeding” cedi

This will freeze the implementation of the levy charged on very litre of petroleum products and Kilogram of LPG from Monday April 1 to June 30 2024.

This was contained in a letter from the National Petroleum Authority to the all the players in the oil marketing and distribution space in the country. 

This was based on the directive from the Finance Ministry working with the Energy Ministry. 

Impact

The action could result in Price of Petrol reduced by 16 pesewas in its price build up. Diesel by 14 pesewas and LPG also 14 pesewas per  Kilogram . However there have been productions that prices of petroleum products are expected to go up from April 1 2024.

Therefore this action could slow down the expected margin of increase for prices of the various Petroleum. The letter also stated that this is insulate consumers from paying for higher fuel prices at the pumps based on rising prices on the global market.  

Details of the Levy

The Energy Sector Levies Act 2015 (Act 899) allows  the National Petroleum Authority to PSRL to stabilise petroleum products prices for consumers over the certain period.

It currently charges 16 pesewas per litre on petrol, fourteen pesewas per litre (GHp14/Lt) on diesel, and 14 Pesewas  per kilogram (GHp14/Kg) on LPG.

Government had in recent times used to intervention to cushion consumers of petroleum products. 

That is whenever the prices rise to a certain level, they decide to put its application on hold. However when prices dropped to a certain level and levies are restored.

ALSO READ:

• LP Gas Association kicks against new petroleum levy

• COPEC applauds Akufo-Addo’s approval to zero the Price Stabilisation and Recovery levies

But the reasons for this, given the tight supply, are complicated.

This fall in the price of the crude oil is nearly six-months low

JPMorgan says a US recession looks increasingly less likely in the eyes of the stock market. 

If this continues, prices of petroleum products on the local market will see the biggest reduction in the next pricing window on August 15^th, 2022.

However, the rapid depreciation of the cedi may offset the significant reduction at the pumps.

Fuel prices in Ghana went down between 3% and 6% at the beginning of August 2022.

OPEC+ said it will raise its oil output target by 100,000 barrels per day.

“Crude oil fell further on demand concerns on a cloudy economic outlook,” CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said.

“If commodities are not pricing in an imminent economic recession, they might be preparing for a ‘stagflation’ era when the unemployment rate starts picking up and inflation stays high”, she added.

Surveys showed on Monday, August 1^st, 2022 that factories across the United States, Europe and Asia struggled for momentum in July 2022 as flagging global demand and China’s strict COVID-19 restrictions slowed production.