Over the years, I have come to a firm realisation about Ghana’s electoral dynamics: once a political party is able to govern effectively and satisfy its core support base, it stands a very strong chance of winning a general election.
The reality is that the majority of registered voters in Ghana are politically aligned. Only a relatively small fraction can genuinely be described as floating or undecided voters.
This position is informed not only by observation but also by direct engagement with key political actors and thinkers. I was privileged to be the first, if not the only, broadcaster to interview the late Professor Kwesi Botchwey after the committee he chaired presented its findings on the factors that led to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) losing the 2016 general election to the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
During his appearance on my programme on Kasapa FM, Professor Botchwey was emphatic in his assessment. He stated clearly that the NDC’s core supporters were deeply unhappy with how party faithful were treated while the party was in power. That dissatisfaction within the base, he explained, significantly contributed to the party’s defeat.
Fast forward to recent events, and similar sentiments are now being expressed in attempts to explain why the NPP also suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the NDC. The recurring thread in these electoral outcomes is strikingly consistent: greed, complacency, and neglect of party supporters once political power is secured.
Both the NPP and the NDC must therefore guard against self-deception. There is no vast or mysterious pool of undecided voters waiting to swing elections at the last minute. Electoral victories in Ghana are largely determined by how well political parties manage, respect, and sustain their own support bases.
Political parties must be more deliberate and intentional in ensuring that their supporters feel valued, included, and catered for. Doing so places them just an inch away from electoral victory.
It is also crucial to recognise that party supporters are not necessarily blind loyalists. Many are discerning and engage in critical assessment of their own party’s performance while in government. When disappointed, such supporters may either vote against their party or abstain entirely from the electoral process.
In the end, elections are not lost or won merely in swing regions or among floating voters; they are often decided at home, within a party’s own support base. How that base is treated while in power may ultimately determine a party’s political future.
