The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to secure board approval for the fifth review of Ghana’s bailout programme in December 2025, IC Research has predicted.
This follows a staff-level agreement reached between the Government of Ghana and the IMF in October 2023, after the authorities met all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the period ending June 2025.
Approval of the fifth review would trigger a disbursement of US$385 million, strengthening Ghana’s forex reserves ahead of the January 2026 Eurobond debt service, estimated at US$689 million.
IC Research noted that the IMF struck a more positive tone in the fifth review compared to the steadily softer assessments during the first four reviews. “We took a closer view of the language adopted by the Fund at the end of the fifth review and inferred a more positive and tangibly confident assessment of the latest performance and near-term economic prospects. The Fund described the authorities’ actions to support financial sector stability as ‘strong’ while indicating that the authorities made ‘notable strides’ in addressing longstanding challenges in the energy sector,” IC Research stated.
Overall, the IMF concluded that macroeconomic stabilization is taking root, with inflation forecast to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range (8.0% ±2.0%), allowing for gradual monetary policy normalization.
“In our view, this indicates the Fund’s confidence in the durability of Ghana’s disinflation trend and support for the Central Bank’s cautious pivot towards policy rate cuts,” the firm added.
Outlook
The IMF also expressed expectations for “positive momentum to continue into 2026.”
“This tone contrasts markedly with the steadily diminished optimism expressed during the first four reviews, when the Fund’s assessment of Ghana’s performance softened from ‘strong’ in the first review to ‘generally strong’ in the second review, and ‘generally satisfactory’ in the third review. Unsurprisingly, the fourth review reflected a marked deterioration, with most indicators deviating from targets,” IC Research noted.
The more upbeat assessment in the fifth review provides optimism for a relatively smooth consideration by the IMF Executive Board in December 2025, paving the way for the disbursement of US$385 million to support budget operations and balance of payments.
This is expected to further bolster Ghana’s net international reserves, which stood at US$8.4 billion in August 2025 (equivalent to 3.6 months of import cover), above the programme target of three months by 2026.