The Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE), Benjamin Nsiah, has predicted that the price of diesel in Ghana could hit around GH¢15 per litre by March 16, 2026.
His prediction follows rising global oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
According to him, global oil prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude reportedly rising by more than 10 per cent to breach key price levels per barrel, while U.S. crude has also climbed significantly for the first time since 2023.
The surge, he explained, is largely being driven by growing threats to oil shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit corridor.
Speaking on Nnawotwe on Adom TV, Mr Nsiah noted that Ghana’s limited fuel storage capacity makes the country vulnerable to global supply shocks, adding that the ongoing conflict will inevitably affect local fuel prices.
He therefore predicted that if current trends continue, diesel users in Ghana could be buying the product at about GH¢15 per litre by March 16.
Mr Nsiah also criticised a recent directive by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) ordering Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs) to halt the practice of selling fuel at discounted prices.
The directive, which takes effect on March 16, 2026, is intended to enforce uniform pricing across fuel retail outlets and ensure that the pump price matches the price submitted to the regulator.
However, Mr Nsiah believes the directive may worsen the situation.
He argued that allowing OMCs to offer discounted prices encourages competition among fuel sellers, which can help moderate fuel prices.
According to him, suspending the discounts at a time when global oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions could rather contribute to an increase in fuel prices in the coming days.
“If the NPA had not issued the directive, some OMCs might have reduced their prices to stay competitive. That could have helped cushion consumers, but stopping the discounts may rather push prices up,” he explained.
