The Bank of Ghana has scaled back both the size and frequency of its foreign exchange interventions in the forex market.
During the second quarter of 2025, the Central Bank intervened heavily, injecting over US$2.0 billion into the market—a move that drew concern from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which urged the regulator to proceed with caution.
As of 29th July 2025, total foreign exchange forward sales for the month stood at US$822.8 million, 53.6% lower than in June. The Bank of Ghana was notably absent from the market on 25th and 29th July, marking its first absence since April.
This reduction in activity contributed to a tighter forex supply and a cumulative 1.7% depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar following IMF Board approval.
IC Research, a leading financial economic research firm, noted: “In view of the need to avert a protracted over-valued FX rate and close the arbitrage gap in the market, we expect the Bank of Ghana to continue the gradual softening of its FX market presence.”
The firm predicts this strategy will likely result in a non-disruptive rise in the interbank US dollar–Ghana cedi rate to between GH¢10.45 and GH¢11.45 per dollar (midpoint: GH¢10.95/USD) by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, IC Research highlighted that the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) appreciation indicates a likely, though modest, corrective depreciation ahead.
The sharp appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi in the first half of 2025 has created multiple foreign exchange rates, with the interbank rate around mid-GH¢10/USD, while the retail rate hovered near GH¢12/USD.
“Our analysis of Ghana’s FX trend suggests a sharp appreciation of the real exchange rate as the REER index declined by 31.3% over six months to reach 92.7 percentage points in June 2025,” IC Research stated.
The firm noted that the real exchange rate’s sharp appreciation began in April 2025 and intensified through June, aligning with gains in nominal bilateral forex rates.
Source: Joy Business
