1. Tested and Most Marketed
If you are going into an electoral battle, it pays to present a candidate who has tried, tested, and marketed, a candidate who already has a formidable foothold from which the party can consolidate its gains.
In the current race, Bawumia’s closest contender is Kennedy Agyapong, who contested the 2023 primaries and lost to Dr Bawumia. In the 2024 general elections, the NPP lost both the presidential and parliamentary elections in Kennedy Agyapong’s home constituency and home region, Assin Central Constituency and the Central Region.
Dr Bawumia, after what many believe is the worst performance by a government in Ghana’s recent history, won almost 5 million votes, representing about 42% of the national vote in the 2024 presidential election. (The exact figure is 4,877,611 of the valid votes cast, representing 41.75%.)
While Dr Bawumia won 42% of the presidential votes, the NPP won 32% of parliamentary seats. These figures show that the NPP’s defeat in 2024 represented a rejection of the party, not just the candidate.
Dr Bawumia’s home region, the North East Region, was the only region in Northern Ghana that the NPP won the presidential election and did not have minority parliamentary seats.
Dr Bawumia’s candidature lacked the goodwill that Akufo-Addo’s inherited from the Kufuor administration. Anger against the Akufo-Addo administration was mounting, and whoever contested on the NPP ticket was bound to face the wrath of voters.
If anyone is closer to winning power for the NPP, either in 2028 or 2032, Dr Bawumia stands tall among the current cast of untested hands.
2. The NPP’s Unity and Ghana’s Interest
In the Bible, we are told the story of a wise King named Solomon. In the illustration of his infinite wisdom, we are told that two women fought over the ownership of a child and ended up in King Solomon’s court. Solomon suggested that the child be cut in two so that each woman would take half. One woman agreed, but the other would rather have the child go to the other claimant than be cut in two. King Solomon said the child should be given to the one who wanted the child to live.
The unity of the NPP is under threat. And it is so because some people who want to lead the party operate with the mantra of “it is either I get it, or I destroy it.”
But in this race, there is a man who has demonstrated that when it matters most, he would put the collective interest above his personal interest. When tensions in the 2024 elections threatened to spill over, Dr Bawumia stepped up and defused them. He conceded defeat even before the Electoral Commission declared the presidential results for the first constituency. Some in his party still hold that early concession as one of his cardinal sins.
This demonstrable act of bravery, a strength of character, puts him ahead of the pack as someone the NPP can trust to hold the party together. The NPP needs a level-headed unifier, and Dr Bawumia towers above the rest in this regard.
3. A sacrificial Lamb Who Paid His Dues
Some critics of Dr Bawumia have pointed out that he is an outsider to the NPP. Apart from the fact that he is the only non-Akan in the race to lead a party described by its opponents as an “Akan party,” Dr Bawumia can’t be said to be an outsider.
When Dr Bawumia was the NPP’s running mate, Freddy Blay was still a CPP Member of Parliament for Elembele. So if Mr Blay could become the NPP’s National Chairman in 2015, why should Dr Bawumia still wear the outsider tag in 2026?
When the NPP contested the 2012 presidential election results in court, Dr. was the sacrificial lamb who testified and was cross-examined live on television. As someone with future political ambitions, agreeing to testify live on national TV could have been suicidal.
In 2016, Dr Bawumia and his wife, Samira, campaigned like donkeys for the NPP. They took the vicious attacks from their opponents, giving the presidential candidate the much-needed shield.
Today, many people call Bawumia a liar because he was the face of the 2016 election campaign and its promises. The unfulfilled promises have been hung on his neck, and some within his party have joined the opposition to taunt him.
But he was not the only beneficiary of the 2016 victory. As a result of that victory, some became ministers of state, and others landed other juicy appointments. Some got juicy government contracts worth billions of cedis, while others are in parliament today because they were appointed after the 2016 election victory, which enhanced their chances and allowed them to contest.
A major and known architect of that victory should not be denied the chance to lead because some people suddenly think he is an outsider. He has paid his dues.
4. History and Pattern Favour Bawumia
Since Ghana returned to Multiparty democracy in 1992, no party has served more than two 8-year terms, so the NPP losing an election after eight years cannot be reduced solely to the candidate.
The NPP lost in 1992 and 1996 before winning in 2000.
President Atta Mills, who led the NDC after Rawlings’ eight years in power as a democratically elected president, lost in 2000. He again lost in 2004. And in 2008, he won.
President Akufo-Addo lost in 2008. He lost again in 2012 before winning on his third attempt in 2016.
President Mahama, who completed the NDC’s two-term cycle, lost in 2016. He lost again in 2020 before winning in 2024.
The NPP said after 2016 that John Mahama, who had lost miserably, could never become President. They said the NDC could only win if they presented someone else. Today, who is the president?
Dr Bawumia is in good company and is on a good trajectory. He has almost 5 million votes to build from in his subsequent contests as the NPP’s flagbearer.
5. Sins of the Last NPP Administration
A major case against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s candidature has been that, as vice president and chairman of the Economic Management Team, he failed. Ghana’s economy collapsed.
Taxes, levies, reckless borrowing and spending imposed hardship on Ghanaians. So, what did voters do? They punished the NPP at the polls, both presidential and parliamentary
Hardship from the poor economy and taxes such as the E-Levy angered many Ghanaian voters.
As a member of the administration, Dr Bawumia cannot escape collective responsibility for its failures.
But if you look at the NPP flagbearer contenders, you will see names like Kennedy Agyapong, Dr Bryan Acheampong and Dr Osei Yaw Adutwum. These three contenders were in parliament. And in some cases, they had more influence than Bawumia, who could not have vetoed the economic decisions of Akufo-Addo’s cabinet. This may sound outrageous, but let’s break it down.
In the last parliament, when the E-Levy was passed, the NDC had 137 MPs, and the Majority NPP had 138.
If Kennedy Agyapong alone had voted against the E-Levy, it would not have been passed. If Bryan Acheampong alone voted against the E-Levy, it would not have passed. If Dr Osei Yaw Adutwum alone had voted against the E-Levy, it would not have been passed.
These MPs, some of whom blame Dr Bawumia for the economic failure, approved the Finance Minister’s loans and expenditure. Ken Ofori-Atta could not spend, borrow, or pass any tax without the MPs’ approval. In the second term, especially, just one of the MPs could have made a difference.
The only candidate who could be spared the sins of the last administration is Kwabena Agyei Agyepong.
The remaining three may be guiltier than Dr Bawumia in some circumstances.
6. Akufo-Addo’s Puppet Tag
In past primaries and elections, one criticism of Dr Bawumia was that voting for him would extend the Akufo-Addo dynasty.
Professor Atta Mills didn’t become Rawlings’ puppet, so that assumption does not always hold. And if the information I have is correct, President Akufo-Addo has adopted a more neutral posture in this race, as opposed to the past, when he was clearly backing Dr Bawumia. Internal sources say there is more to this. And those who say Bawumia cannot be his own man as president may be clutching at broken straws.
7. Coherence in Messaging
Among the candidates vying for the NPP’s candidature, Dr Bawumia has presented the most coherent campaign message so far. Like everyone else, some of the promises attributed to him are untenable, but if compared to his contenders, none of them come close to what he presented in the last primaries, the last election and even in this campaign.
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