The Bank of Ghana is expected to tighten its monetary policy in the first half of 2026.
According to a leading market and research firm, IC Securities, it expects the double-digit real policy rate to persist through the first half of 2026 as the government seeks to avert a potential second-round effect from the tariff hike.
In its analysis of the Bank of Ghana’s policy rate, it said a likely increase in the real policy rate above the 12.0% mark by the end of 2025 indicates the Monetray Policy Committee is likely to hit a pause in January 2026.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana voted by a majority decision to reduce the policy rate by 350 basis points to 18.0% at its final MPC meeting for 2025 in November.
“The magnitude of the rate cut was broadly in line with our expectation but came in 50 basis points lower than our maximum expected cut of 400 basis points. We view this deep, yet cautious, rate cut as a signal of the MPC’s continued preference for double digits real policy rate at every point in this phase of the rate cutting cycle which began in July 2025”, it said.
The cut effectively reduced the real policy rate from 13.5% (pre-MPC) to 10.0% (post-MPC), retaining the monetary stance in a very restrictive zone.
“We expect this double-digit real policy rate to persist through first-half of 2026 as the authorities will seek to avert a potential second-round effect from the tariff hike”, it added.
It concluded that the monetary stance will align with the 2026 budget statement, which note that “monetary easing will be cautious and conditional on continued stability, and the Bank stands ready to act swiftly should inflationary risks resurfaced”.
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