A new survey by research group, Sanity Africa has projected the outcome of the upcoming Akwatia parliamentary by-election, with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Lawyer Bernard Baidoo, holding a slight lead over the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Solomon Asumadu.
The poll, conducted between August 1 and August 27, shows Baidoo with 52.3% support among likely voters, compared to 47.7% for Asumadu — a margin of just 4.6 percentage points.
The by-election, scheduled for September 2, 2025, follows the death of sitting NPP MP Ernest Kumi.
While the NDC went through its internal selection process to settle on Baidoo, the NPP handpicked Asumadu, a mining sector figure — a move the survey suggests could create discontent among some party grassroots.
Survey Snapshot
-
Total registered voters: 52,328
-
Sample size: 1,568 (≈3% of electorate)
-
Estimated turnout: 48% (≈25,117 voters)
-
Polling stations covered: 39 out of 119
-
Communities covered: 17
Demographic Trends
The findings reveal sharp demographic splits:
-
Graduates: 82.7% favour Baidoo (NDC) against 17.3% for Asumadu (NPP).
-
Youth (18–40): 59.6% prefer Asumadu.
-
Unemployed: 52.7% back Asumadu, reflecting his strong appeal among galamsey-linked communities.
-
Voters with no formal education: 56% support Asumadu, compared to 44% for Baidoo.
Sanity Africa noted that while Baidoo dominates among educated voters, Asumadu retains an edge with the unemployed and informal workers — groups that could prove decisive if turnout is high.
Turnout to Decide Outcome
The report emphasises that voter mobilisation will be critical, given Ghana’s historically low by-election turnouts. Researchers project just 48% turnout in Akwatia, citing political fatigue and heavy security presence.
“In such a closely contested by-election, mobilization is everything,” the survey concluded. “The candidate who best activates their base and overcomes turnout barriers will likely emerge victorious.”
What’s at Stake
For the NDC, a victory in Akwatia would strengthen its parliamentary presence and signal growing momentum ahead of 2028. For the NPP, retaining the seat is crucial to demonstrating unity after internal disquiet over Asumadu’s handpicking.
With just days to the polls, both campaigns are expected to intensify door-to-door outreach and community mobilisation in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched by-elections in recent years.
Akwatia, historically a swing constituency, has alternated between the NDC and NPP over the past two decades, making the upcoming contest a major test of political strength ahead of the 2028 general elections.
Source: Citi News
CSSPS portal back online for SHS placement review and confirmation
US visiting titles don’t make you a Professor – GTEC to…
